Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Playoff Odds

Following last night's 5-3 win in Edmonton, I took a trip over to and started reviewing the Wild's playoff odds. Not only does it give the Wild's percentage to get in the playoffs, it gives odds on where the Wild will finish and who they will play. All of this is based on how the Wild finish the season and with how many points they end up with.

Here are the odds for the Wild and the playoffs:

  • The Wild's playoffs odds went up 4.3% to 97.6% on whether or not they will make the playoffs at all.
  • Any combination of wins and OT games that gets the Wild to 57 points, gives them a 100% chance of making the playoffs and gives them a 33% chance to finish at least as the 6th seed. So keep 57 as your magic number at home.
  • Should the Wild go 5-0-0 in their final 5 games, that will give them 61 points and it gives them a 60% chance of winning the division and finishing as the 3rd seed.
  • Minnesota has a 30.8% chance of playing Anaheim in the first round. Vancouver is close behind at 26.7%.
  • There's a 10.2% chance of Minnesota finishing 8th and playing Chicago in the first round.
  • The percentage of Minnesota missing the playoffs entirely is now 2.4%..
  • Finally, Minnesota's percentage to win the Stanley Cup is 1.2%.
So out of all of this, you should take away that six more points in the final five games, assures Minnesota of a playoff spot, and it gives them a good chance to finish as the 6th seed in the West.

The Wild's remaining schedule is: @ SJ (4/18), vs CGY (4.21), vs LA (4/23), vs EDM (4/26), and @ COL (4/27). I count at least three wins (six points) in there. Question is: Can they get more?

Follow Giles on Twitter @gilesferrell

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